When Japan goes to the polls, it is not just about domestic politics. The election result will have a direct impact on how the country positions itself internationally – politically, militarily and strategically. This is the assessment of Raymond Yamamoto, a researcher in Japanese foreign policy and political systems.

He argues that foreign policy cannot be understood in isolation from national politics. To understand the actions of states, one must understand their political systems, societies, and cultural contexts.

Raymond Yamamoto is a researcher with a focusing on Japan, with a particular emphasis on Japanese foreign policy and its close connection to domestic politics. According to him, you cannot understand the international actions of states if you regard them as "black boxes", i.e. as uniform actors without attention to their internal political and social dynamics – as often happens in international relations. This requires in-depth knowledge of political systems – but also of the cultural and social contexts that shape political practice.

"You cannot understand Japan's role internationally without looking at the country's domestic political dynamics. The outcome of the election will fundamentally determine how Japan will act on the international stage – both politically, strategically and in terms of security policy."

A political system under pressure
Since 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics and created a stable and predictable system – the so-called 1955 system. But this stability has been increasingly challenged.

In the October 2024 parliamentary election, the LDP lost significant support following financial scandals and revelations of links between party members and the Unification Church that came to light following the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō.

The current prime minister, Takaichi Sanae – Japan's first female prime minister – took over the party leadership in October last year and has since called an early election in the hope of regaining the party's traditional dominance. However, the outcome depends not only on her popularity, but also on the opposition's ability to appear as a credible alternative.

Shortly before the elections, the coalition partner Kōmeitō dissolved cooperation with the LDP and merged with the Constitutional Democratic Party. Together, they formed the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), which profiles itself as a moderate party with a focus on socio-economic issues.

"If Takaichi fails to secure a clear majority, it cannot just cost her the post of prime minister. It could also mark the beginning of the end for the political system that has defined Japan since the post-war period and which has been based on the LDP's almost uninterrupted dominance."

Anti-militarism under pressure
The election is particularly interesting from a foreign policy perspective. For decades, Japan has been known for its anti-militarist line, enshrined in Article 9 of the Constitution. The country has focused on diplomacy and economics, while the United States has acted as a security guarantor.

However, this approach is under pressure. China's growing influence, Russia's military activities and North Korea's nuclear program have changed the security policy landscape. At the same time, opinion polls show that the population is increasingly in favor of strengthening Japan's self-defense forces.

He notes that a clear majority for the LDP will give Takaichi a strong mandate to expand Japan's military capacity – not least because the party is no longer bound by its pacifist coalition partner Kōmeitō.

Why the election also concerns Denmark and the EU
The election in Japan is also relevant outside Asia. The international order is changing rapidly, and the United States is increasingly emerging as a more unpredictable partner. This increases the need for Denmark and the EU to strengthen relations with other like-minded actors.

Japan is a key partner in this regard. As a trading nation, the country has a clear interest in maintaining a rules-based, liberal world order – a principle shared with the EU. Regardless of the election result, this basic view will remain, but a strong LDP mandate will probably mean a Japan that is also more committed to security policy.

"For better or worse, a more security-active Japan opens up new opportunities for security cooperation that were previously politically difficult," says Raymond Yamamoto.

Read more:
Valg i Japan: Sanae Takaichi spiller højt spil for at konsolidere sin magt (Election in Japan: Sanae Takaichi is taking a high‑stakes gamble to consolidate her power) in Udenrigs.

"Nagatachō og Kasumigaseki – udforskning af hjertet af Japans politiske magt" ("Nagatachō and Kasumigaseki – exploring the heart of Japan's political power" in  Oplev Japan (Discover Japan), edited by Jørn Borup and Annette Skovsted Hansen

Japan 2024 and Japan 2025 (upcoming) in Asia Maior
– Annual overviews of current political and societal events in Japan and Asia in general. (www.asiamaior.org)

Contact

Raymond Yamamoto, Associate Professor of Japanese Studies
Department of Global Studies
School of Culture and Society
Aarhus University
Mail: raymond.yamamoto@cas.au.dk
Phone: +45 8716 2964